동아시아 비교우위의 이동과 무역패턴의 변화: 1985-1994

Shifting Comparative Advantages and Changes in the Pattern of Trade in East Asia: 1985-1994

This paper examines shifting comparative advantages and the pattern of trade in East Asia since the mid-1980s. The East-Asian developing countries have experienced rapid changes in their industrial structures and achieved remarkable rates of growth in the period. The growth has been particularly spectacular in the ASEAN countries and China where outward-oriented strategies of growth have been relentlessly pursued. As a result, these countries have emerged from exporters of primary commodities into successful exporters of manufactured products. Their participation into the trading system of manufactures in East Asia have resulted in a sharper specialization of production and trade among the countries in the region according to factor proportions. Dramatic increases in the flow of direct foreign investment since the Plaza agreement have also contributed greatly to the growth of regional trade following either comparative advantages or internalization advantages. Thus, the level of intra-regional trade of these countries reached to nearly 80 percent if the United States were included, justifying the regional perspective adopted in this analysis. The intensity index analysis has revealed, however, that these changes do not necessarily imply any strengthening of regionalization, as the indexes have been mostly declined in the period. The East-Asian trade structure has a critical weakness, however, in the sense that its dependence on the U.S. market is still heavy de-spite substantial decrease in its share. Furthermore, the cooperative regional trade mechanism described in the flying geese model may not be applicable in some respects as the assumption such as reverse exporting has failed to be materialized in the development of regional production. Thus, whether the East-Asian trade and growth can be sustainable would depend inter alia on the multi-lateral free trade environment and smooth adjustment of industrial structures.