동아시아의 무역-투자 연계체제와 경제위기

The Trade-Investment Nexus in East Asia and the Economic Crisis

One year has passed since the eruption of the East Asian economic crisis. The crisis has attracted a considerable attention because it was unexpected and the contagion was so swift and widespread. Attempts to explain the causes of the crisis fall into three categories: ·Structural deficiencies and moral hazard ·Financial panic ·Liberalization of capital movements However, these explanations have mainly focused on financial aspects of the crisis and paid little attention to the interaction between financial and real sectors. The present paper is an attempt to remedy these shortcomings. This paper argues that the policy change toward a strong outward-oriented growth strategy has transformed East Asia into a region closely linked by trade and investment interdependence. The export-driven growth, however, was unsustainable because it relied final demand on the Western industrialized countries which grew at a slower pace. These countries have also become vulnerable to financial panic by allowing short-term financial capital mobility. Capital inflow boom resulted appreciation of their currencies and when their currencies were attacked, the system collapsed altogether. The wrong solution to this regional problem adopted by the IMF turned the financial crisis into a painful region-wide recession.