아세안제국과 아시아 신흥공업국들간의 성장격차에 관한 일 연구

A Study On The Growth Difference Between Asean and Asian NICs

The growth records of four Asean countries of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Philippines in the past two decades are quite remarkable. However, these records still fall short of those achieved by the Asian NICs in various aspects, such as growth rates, industrialization, and income distribution, among others. This paper thus attempts to find out both economic and non-economic causes which might have contributed to these differences. As for the economic causes, 'Dutch Disease Syndrome', inflexibility of policy change, and instability of export prices of major primary commodities, are cited. The term 'Dutch Disease' , which explains adverse effects on a non-traditional manufacturing sector by a boom in primary exports, was popularized by Corden and applied to the Asean case by Naya. However, our study finds that the adverse effects of falling employment and output (or value-added) in manufacturing sectors of these countries, which would presumably be caused by richness of natural resources and by price rises of primary commodities in the second-half of 1970s and early 1980s, were not completely significant and clear. As for the non-economic causes, high population growth rates, colonial legacies of land use and ownership and of corruption in the bureaucracy, roles of Chinese in this region, are examined. The question whether these Asean countries should adopt or switch their growth strategy toward export-oriented industrialization, that have closely been associated with East Asian NICs, are then finally addressed. It is concluded that, although a switch toward export-oriented industrialization might improve growth prospects of Asean countries, this is subject to a meeting of various internal and external conditions- including establishments of a strong government that controls interest groups who resist such change, and a clean, efficient bureaucracy.