선거와 시장경제Ⅱ-2000 국회의원 선거시장을 중심으로-

Three Papers on the Korean Political Stock Market : A Market Approach to Predict the 16th National Assembly Election in Korea

This study is composed of three papers, which are related with the Political Stock Market to track the dynamics of election campaign, and to predict outcomes. One is a comprehensive and comparative review of the markets held in U.S.A., Canada, Australia, Sweden, Netherlands, Germany and Korea to find out factors to influence the function of the markets. The other one focuses on the 2000 Korean National Assembly Stock Market, secondly implemented in Korea by Assembly Stock Market, secondly implemented in Korea by Korea Economic Research Institute and Joongang Daily Newspaper after the 1998 Korean Presidential Market (KPSM). The predictions of the 2000 Korean National Assembly Stock Market was quite accurate to the outcome of the election. The forecasting errors were only 0.55~5.15% points to the Parties' actual vote shares. The third paper econometrically investigates the power of an unconventional Granger-causality test between opinion polls and political stock market prices implemented in Forsythe et al. (1992), through Monte Carlo simulations.