화폐유통속도의 장기 결정요인 분석

Long-term Determinants of the Velocity of Money

It is frequently argued that the level of money stock in Korea is low compared to the GDP level, and money supply is not smoothly channeled to the firms. Thus, economic activities could be boosted by increasing the money supply. To support this argument, the Marshall k is cited: the Marshall k of Korea is low, recording 0.39, which is below those of the U.S.(O.51), Canada(O.49), Germany(O.63), and far below those of Japan(1.09) and Taiwan(1.75). This paper examines "the argument of Marshall k": economic activities can be fostered by increasing the money supply and Marshall k. To examine this argument, this paper builds a general equilibrium model based on an endogenous growth model. And, the paper investigates the long-term determinants of Marshall k or its reciprocal, Money Velocity. It also investigates whether money supply could boost the real economic activities by looking at the movements of real output, consumption, labor hour and inflation in response to the money supply shock. According to the result of simulations, a positive money supply shock generates a decrease in real money balance and consequently an increase in Money Velocity. It implies that "the argument of Marshall k" does not work at least in the model specified in the paper.