통화의 공급경로별 파급효과 분석

Macroeconomic Effects of Money Supply through Institutional Transimission Channels

According to Phillip Cagan, the three determinants of the money stock-highpowered money, the currency ratio, and the reserve ratio-are not mechanically realated to each other. Yet the determinants display much divergence even in such short-run movements. Their effects on the money stock are not the same and an examination of the behaviour of each determinant is relevant and helps to isolate the main sources of variations in the money stock. This empirical analysis here is based on the relative contribution of each determinant to the rate of change in money stock rather than to its absolute level so as to measure those of each macroeconomic effect on the aggregate output and price for its institutional channel. This study's examination of the determinants of the money stock tries to clarify the main direction of influence by showing to what extent price and output are affected by them for each supply channel. The evidence can be summarized in terms of statistical value and regression coefficients; all the determinants of money stock positively effect on the output. But price is influenced by changes in money stock caused by high-powered money only. Inflationary effects of the changes in money stock by changes in currency ratio or reserve ratio measured in this study are not interpretedas significant. The changes in aggregate output(GDP) is affected by the changes in money stock caused by high-powered money supply through external, financial and government sector while the inflation is affected dominantly by high-powered money supply through external sector during the period 1970-1996. Further research in this area is certainly called for, and progress is likely to be made on two fronts. Flrst, empirical research is necessary to examine that some kind of interaction between financial institution and capital markets might generate cycles in the two ratios, unrelated to concurrent cycles in commercial and industrial activity. Second, inverse direction of influence-to what extent aggregate output and price affect on the determinants of money stock-has been expected and measured as substantially lower in previous studies abroad would help to understand the causal relation.