아시아 외환위기의 발생과정과 원인

On the Causes and Development Processes of the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis

This study is to explain the development processes and causes of the Asian currency crisis. To this end, the 'weak link framework' has been devised. This framework can be seen as being similar to the snapping of a chain at the weakest link due to a tightening and shock. Applying this weak link framework to the Asian currency crisis, 'the macro economic tensions' in East Asian countries have been caused by a change of intraregional trade specialization patterns and the massive inflow of capital into this region. The 'weakest sectors of the economy' in East Asian countries have been formed during the financial and capital account liberalization. Due to unbalanced regulations and poor financial supervision in the Asian countries, the 'weakest link' that has been formed can be seen as being the non bank financial institutions. Examples include Jusens in Japan, Finance Companies in Thailand and the Merchant Banking Corporations in Korea. The 'sudden shock' as applied to the Asian countries can be likened to the speculative attacks of the hedge funds. Another important factor for some of the Asian countries that caused the sudden shocks was the contagion effect that the currency crisis had. The difference between the Korean currency crisis and the South East Asian currency crisis is that the deterioration of the South East Asian financial system was caused by the bursting of asset bubbles, while that of Korea was due to a number of firms going bankrupt However, despite these differences between the two, the leading reason for the asset bubble formation in the East Asian countries and the bankruptcies m Korea was because of an inflow of capital, which resulted in the over liquidity and appreciation of domestic currencies. This lead to the formation of asset bubbles in some East Asian countries in one hand and the loss of external competitiveness for Korean firms on the other hand. In short, the Asian currency crisis owes a lot to the financial and capital account liberalization of the Asian countries, combined with inflow of capital and poor preparations of the host countries. These Asian countries had poor financial institutions and infrastructures and so could not deal properly with the financial and capital account liberalization. Carrying out the liberalization resulted in macro economic tensions, as well as creating the 'weak links' in the 'chain' of the economy. With these tensions and weak links, the Asian economies were drawn into the currency crisis by outside shocks that can be represented by the hedge fund's attacks and contagion effects. The actual form of the currency crisis has been the withdrawal of foreign capital from the weak financial system, which has been made worse by the insolvent non banking sector of the Asian economies.