Re-examining Time Structures in Empirical Analysis of Great Power Wars - A Rare Events Model of Power, Alliances, and Satisfaction from 1816-1985

Re-examining Time Structures in Empirical Analysis of Great Power Wars - A Rare Events Model of Power, Alliances, and Satisfaction from 1816-1985

For the last six decades scholars have tried to explain the relationship of power and conflict. While the specific explanations they provide vary, most find a direct relationship between the distributions of power on the likelihood of war. Two rival theories, power transition and balance of power theory, both provide the theoretical underpinnings of these investigations. A rare-events logistics regression estimation of both theories is employed and tested over two different time structures. These structure differ in how dyad time-periods are conceptualized and investigated. The results that alliance formation directly effects conflict initiation both compliments and challenges past findings, and highlights important methodological issues in conflict research.