9ㆍ11以後 東北아시아 安保環境의 變化樣相과 影向: 美國ㆍ中國ㆍ日本 3국을 中心으로

Northeast Asian Security after 9.11

The September 11 terrorist attacks have totally changed the international community's perception of the security threats that it faces in the new century. Especially, the incident has brought a renewed urgency to the American security thinking. In the aftermath of 9'11, the U.S. security policies are focused to fight terrorism and to reduce the number of weapons of mass destruction and prevent their proliferation. As a result, the U.S. strategic position in Northeast Asia is changing. The U.S. has already begun stepping back from its role as the balancing power in Northeast Asia and is moving toward a closer relationship with China instead. The U.S. needs China's help, whether in North Korean nuclear issue or anti-terrorism campaign. The U.S. believes that China is uniquely positioned to pressure North Korea because it is Pyongyang's closest friend. The Bush administration also believes that Beijing places the highest priority on preventing Pyongyang from acquiriring nuclear weapons. At the same time, China shares more and more common interests with the U.S. in security and economic affairs. Since Chinese economic growth is driven mostly by American investment and export market, China hopes to continue the present stable Sino-U.S. relations in the coming future. Therefore China will not playa real active role to prohibit the U.S. from persuing its goals. In other words, China levels up its national power by cooperating with the U.S. Japan is anxiously watching the pace of China's military modernization, the evolution of its relations with the U.S., and bilateral Chinese-Japanese ties. Despite enmity between China and Japan, despite their competition to establish regional hegemony, Japan has moved closer to China since 9ㆍ11 attacks. Tokyo see strengthening regional ties as a strategic measure to enhance Japan's position vis-a-vis the U.S. As Japan's perceived economic interests in China have evolved, its political dialogue with Beijing has also deepened. Japan still look to the U.S. as a major source of security, but economic gains will drive her to further deepen relations with China. At the same time, for reasons of Japan's uncertainty about China, North Korea and the U.S. military presence, Japanese Government begins to discuss rearming. Given the complexities discussed above, the current security environment in Northeast Asia presents a mixed picture. It is hard to say that the current security situation in the region is stable enough. The major actors in the region such as the U.S., China and Japan face a different geopolitical and strategic situation. To overcome the current difficulties and to last peace and prosperity of the region, the regional integration including the U.S. strategically and economically should be developed. The U.S. should support a regionalized Northeast Asia and China should welcome the U.S. participation in the regional integration.