Party System Change in Advanced Democracies

Party System Change in Advanced Democracies

The study of change in party systems lacks an encompassing focus. Different groups of study examine internal determinants of change (e.g., scandal in Japan or Italy), the rise of voter apathy (e.g., de-alignment) and the contribution of social/economic cleavages (e.g., the post-modernity hypothesis). What is lacking is an overarching theory to describe party system change in a comparative context. To this end I develop a model combining different determining factors of party system change. The model highlights two key mechanisms of change: the degree of strategic manipulation possible in the electoral rules and the ease of voter coordination. The model predicts that all instances of party system change fall into four exclusive categories: cyclical, punctuated equilibrium. frozen and futile. To test the model, I examine party system change in the 20th century in three advanced democracies: Germany, Britain and Ireland.