비용-편익분석의 이론과 현실: 새만금사업의 사례

Theory and Practice of Cost-Benefit Analysis: The Case of Saemankeum Tideland Reclamation Project

Ten years have already passed since the ceremonial tape of the 'Saemankeum Tideland Reclamation Project' was cut in November 1991, but the controversy over the economic value of the project still remains unresolved. This ambitious project is supposed to turn a vast area of tideland along the west coast of Korea into arable land through reclamation works. Since the tideland upon which reclamation works are undertaken is home to a rich variety of wildlife, environmental activists have voiced a grave concern about the negative ecological impact of the project. Besides, many economists have expressed their doubts about the economic value of the project. They point out that the true economic value of newly reclaimed land is not so great as that calculated in the original project evaluation. All the negative opinions about the project notwithstanding, the Korean government finally has decided to go ahead with the project. During the past ten years, a huge amount of money has been poured into the project and a substantial part of basic engineering works has been completed. With a new administration in power and under the incessant pressure from environmental groups, however, the government has found it difficult to resist the demand for objective re-evaluation of the economic feasibility of the project. As a result, a group of civilian experts commissioned for re-evaluation work was hastily formed. Although there was some dissenting voice within the group, there reaffirmed the result of the original evaluation that the Saemankeum project could pass the test of economic feasibility. Their conclusion and the procedure through which they derive such a conclusion are summarized in the 'Evaluation Report of Environmental Impact of Saemankeum Project'. Upon reading the Report, however, one immediately gets an impression that it is full of misguided judgement as well as logical inconsistencies. The authors of the Report try very hard to convince us that the Saemankeum project has sufficient economic value by demonstrating that the benefit-cost ratio is well above one under various possible scenarios. However, not many people would be persuaded to believe that such an evaluation is credible, since their analysis lacks rigor and objectivity. Anybody with elementary knowledge of cost-benefit analysis would be able to figure out innumerable problems contained in the Report. The main purpose of this paper is to critically evaluate the appropriateness of the cost-benefit analysis carried out in the Report. It is to be demonstrated that the Report totally lacks credibility due sto too many errors and mistakes contained in it.