지방자치단체의 부채규모 결정요인에 관한 분석

Analysis on the Determinant Factors for the Size of Municipal Liability

After the advent of localization, the issue of bonds in local governments has reached an unprecedented level of importance. Through the experience of the 1998-1999 economic crisis, much concern has been raised about the increase of liabilities for local governments and the possibility of their bankruptcy as has occurred in foreign countries. Some municipalities, which have greater autonomy in fiscal management than in the past, have been audited by the central government because of their loose fiscal management. However, excessively tight control of local government may undermine the efficiency of fiscal management and cause the inability to timely meet the demand of public finance (as we can see in the fiscal indexes). Accordingly, works which study the propriety of the volume of local bonds through analysis and empirical verification of determinant factors are urgently needed, though we have very few studies on this subject. This study was made for utilization as a reference on policy making for fiscal management of local government through the analysis of factors that affect liabilities with scientific and systematic management. In order to cover the factors affecting the issue of local bonds, I reviewed economic and social factors through multi-regression analysis, and examined political factors through co-relation analysis between voting ratios, political position of the mayor and his/her experience in public administration. Initially I established a multi-regression analysis model that analyzed 9 factors. However, I later modified the model due to multicollinearity and homoscadicity on verification of regression appropriation. Therefore I exclude one factor from two factors-the volume of automobiles and tax expenditures of the previous year that invoked the problem of multicollinearity. In addition, I redefined local bonds invoking homoscadicity as the independent factor through its log transformation. Through this study, we can find that population, fiscal independence, area of non-conserved river, the number of merchants and industries as well as autonomy positively affect the volume of local bonds, while local tax per capita has a negative effect. We can also find, in political factors, the voting ratio has a negative relation and mayoral experience in public administration has a positive relation. In particular, the establishment of a local autonomy is the factor of greatest positive influence in the regression equation for relative comparison. Similarly, we can find that the establishment of a local autonomy explicitly enlarges the issuance volume of local bonds. At measuring of fiscal soundness of municipalities, the priori measurement on the soundness through the indexes regarding local bonds which have been paid attention to as the most influential has been generally utilized until now. Generally speaking, the proper boundary of index value has been decided not from substantial verification but from a specialist's empirical estimation. Also, the management of local bonds has focused primarily on control and monitoring through the management of indexes after bond issuance rather than through systematic management such as the collection and analysis of data on factors relevant to the bonds. This study analyzes the factors through regression analysis utilizing the statistics of approximately 80 municipalities during the previous 10 years in order to understand the political, economic and social factors influencing local bonds. We can expect municipalities with more positive social and economic factors, such as the volume of population and the area of non-conserved river, to issue more bonds than other municipalities. In addition, a mayor with experience in public administration will be expected to issue more bonds than those who are purely political. This study on the relation between these variables and local bonds enables municipalities to estimate the future increase of issuing bonds and t