한국의 정치적 예산순환

Korean Political Budget Cycle

This paper studied whether or not the evidence of a political budget cycle in Korea could be found using the election dummy variables and un-restrictive model which was developed by Haynes and Stone. It was tested using the annual data for the total fiscal expenditure and other items that could be arbitrarily influenced by government from 1970-1999. Evidence of a political budget cycle in Korea was not found. However, this doesn't necessarily mean there is not a political budget cycle in Korea. Because Korean government can decide at what point in time to spend their annual budget, it can increase spending during or prior to an election. But this will not be shown in annual data. If a quarterly data were available, the existence of a political budget cycle may be proven.