지리적 프로파일링을 이용한 연쇄방화범의 거주지 추정 : 동래연쇄방화사건의 사례

The Estimation on the Residence of Serial Arsonist, using Geographic Profiling : The Case of Dong-Rae Serial Arson

This Study is the application of geographic profiling technique on serial arson crimes which had happened at Dong-Rae in Pusan. In this serial arson case, a arsonist had successfully committed about 20-times Motor-Vehicle arson at that restricted area. This study makes an inference the residence of the serial arsonist from the location information of arsons by spacial mean and standard distance. The Analysis shows that the inferred residence and the real residence of arsonist is not same. There are some cleavage between two residences, because of following some distorting factors : i.e. physical, psychological boundaries (such as a river, a administrative boundary and etc.), crime displacement, newspaper report, and the existence of arterial roads and highways. Additionally, the temporal direction of two or three arsons happened at same day was mostly from the far place to the close place.