지역별 총수출입화물량의 예측 비교 - ARIMA 모형의 적용 -

A Study on Forecasting and Comparison of Total Trading Volumes of Export and Import in Regional Groups - On basic of ARIMA model -

The purpose of this study is to estimate and forecast the total trading volumes of export and import in each regional port (Busan, Kwangyang, Ulsan, Incheon), and to give some policy suggestion. We estimate and forecast the trading volumes by using ARIMA model that is the fittest to estimate regional trading volumes. Before forecasting, we analyze forecasting statistics (RMSPE, MAPE, MPE)to test forecasting power of model. The result of forecasting the trading volumes indicates that the trading volumes of export and import will be 245,110 to 348,961 thousand ton in Busan port, 186,652 to 246,017 thousand ton in Kwangyang port, 151,546 to 169,011 thousand ton in Ulsan port and 123,114 to 126,952 thousand ton in Incheon port from 2005 to 2008. Busan port has the highest increase rate of trading volumes and Incheon port has the least increase rate of trading volumes. Therefore, it suggests that we must reexamine investment plan to port industry and establishments of each regional port.