최근의 부동산버블과 거시경제 분석 - 1990년대 일본상황과 비교 -

Recent Real Estate Bubble and Macroeconomic Analysis - As Compared with 1990's Japan Economy -

1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES Recently the issue of long-term depression possibility is again raising since the real estate market is unstable and the domestic economic recovery comes to be late. This research examines the formation of the recent real estate price in Korea and diagnoses the possibility of depression by compared with the macro-economy index of 1990's macro-economy in Japan. In addition it provides the suggestion in order to overcome our difficult situation such as the unstable real estate market and prepare the possibility of deep depression. (2) RESEARCH METHOD In order to exam the possibility of the current real estate bubble, secondary data from first data obtained by Korean government, Bank, and so on are developed. Comparison method is used to compare Korean economy with Japan's. The informations of current policy are collected from the web-sites and articles (3) RESEARCH RESULTS This research presents the existence of real estate bubble but it is not dangerous level to be worried., There is not a possibility of bubble collapse because of low LTV, potential demand of residential house, and government's confrontation plan. However economy seems not easy to derail from depression due to high oil price and low export volume by Korean currency appreciation. The possibility of long-term depression exits if Korean government insists the current real estate policy and does not prepare the possibility of depression. 2. RESULTS We propose the possible solutions to escape from the long-term depression. 1) Government should not use too strong regulation policy of real estate to prevent real demand, 2) Government should focus on the preparation of depression not only the regulation of real estate. 3)It must prepare the suppression system which closes the excessive trust expansion of the financial institution against the hazard mortgage financing. 4) The trust among social members should be recovered to remove negative consuming habit and unstable future and the vision must be shown to achieve social value. 3. KEY WORDS real estate bubble, real estate price, regulation policy, economic recovery, macroeconomic index, depression