[地域動向]臺灣의 정권 교체와 정치 위기

Democratic Transition and Political Crisis in Taiwan

This paper deals with the current regional situation in Taiwan and the achievements and problems arising from the transition from authoritarianism to democracy. Chen Shui-Bian's victory on March 18, 2000 to become Taiwan's president-elect, with 39 percent of the vote, has dramatically changed Taiwan's domestic political topology and ended fifty years of Kuomintang (KMT) rule on the island, placing the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP, Minjindang) behind the wheel for the first time. It might be "the greatest victory of Taiwan's Democracy movement", as mentioned by Chen, but now Taiwan is facing the risk of political meltdown. First, since Chen's election, Taiwan's economy has fallen into a slump. The stock market has plunged by more than 40%, a slide that represents a vote of "no confidence" in the President's abilities. Chen's approval rating, meanwhile, has fallen to less than 40%, from a high of 80%. His Premier, Tang Fei, resigned after less than half a year in office. Moreover, the delicate relationship with Beijing, which threatened war if Chen was elected, has stalled without any sign of improvement, while fundamentalists in the pro-independence DPP are criticizing him for ambiguous attitudes toward the "one-China" issue. And no one can control Vice President, Annette Lu, who pokes China in the eye at every opportunity. Above all, Chen faces political crisis in the wake of a decision to cancel construction of the country's fourth nuclear power plant which has been a pet KMT project. The KMT, which is the majority party with 115 seats in the 221-seat legislature, made a coalition of opposition parties including the People First Party (Qinmindang) and the New party (Xindang) - both established by breakaway members of the former KMT, and sees the power-plant issue as the last straw in a six month long chapter of the new government's mismanagement. Opposition lawmakers have threatened to recall Chen because they think his government violated the constitution by unilaterally deciding to scrap a partially built nuclear plant. Chen delivered a conciliatory speech on national television in which he apologized to the people and KMT chairman Lien Chan, one of his chief rivals. Recently he has been trying to show a more compromising attitude toward the criticism from the opposition troika, but whether Chen can overcome all the challenges and consolidate Taiwan's democratization, is still uncertain