[硏究論文]南北關係의 變化와 展望

The Changes and Prospects in the North-South Korean Relations

Why did North Korea accept the South's proposal to hold a North-South summit? What are the reasons for this enthusiasm? First, the South Korean government seems to interpret this as evidence that the North has come to trust President Kim Dae-jung's engagement policy and to have hopes that its economy can make a recovery with the help of large-scale assistance from the South. However, it can be interpreted that the North seeks to solidify its emerging "Kim Jong-il system." Advocates of this point of view out the North agreed to the summit knowing that the meeting of the top leaders of the two Koreas was a matter of exigency for North Korea. They note that Kim Jong-il's power is still weak while there is widespread discontent among the North Korean people due to the dire economic situation. This interpretation also believes that North Korea is interested in following up on the last testament supposedly left by the dying Kim Il-sung, while Pyongyang's apparent enthusiasm is a reflection of its self-confidence. North Korea is confident it will come out a winner maintaining Kim Il-sung's policy on unification regardless of whether its interest in the summit relates to securing economic assistance from the South or sustaining its political system. It is also possible that the acceptance of the summit the North, which until recently had consistently shunned government-to-government talks with the South, could be a product of Pyongyang's diplomatic maneuvering and its desire to explore the substance of the Berlin Declaration. The agreement on the inter-Korean summit may thus be seen as an extension of this diplomatic strategy. And in light of the Berlin Declaration, the North may be attempting to see of it can reap economic benefits without giving anything away. South Korea should be able to detect the North's true intent by carefully scrutinizing what it asks for in preliminary summit talks, what preconditions it demands, and what kind of concessions it seeks from the South. In general, the North has so for regarded the South's "sunshine" engagement policy as burdensome, reacting warily and sensitively to South Korean overtures. But at times it has also taken a somewhat different position that have not been seen before, apparently in an effort to secure economic gains from the South. In any event, South Korea should be able to clearly discern the North's attitude toward forming and economic community during the summit proceedings. In particular, South Korea needs to accurately determine whether the North's agreement to the summit is a signal of its willingness to change its approach toward the South, or whether it simply constitutes old wine in a new bottle.