NAFTA와 미국ㆍ캐나다ㆍ멕시코의 자동차 산업 교역 변화 및 투자의 실증분석

Changes of Auto Trade and Empirical Analysis of FDI in Mexico, Canada and U.S. with NAFTA

  There were significant institutional changes favorable to automobile industry in North America such as CUSFTA, and Mexico"s liberalization policy before NAFTA was effective. In order to trace the influence of NAFTA on the automobile industry in Mexico, Canada and the U.S. in the NAFTA, I investigated auto trade data through UN comtrade data analysis and took the econometric analyses over 1993-2002. I found out that, among the three North American Countries of Mexico, Canada and the U.S., Mexico has enjoyed larger gains from trade than the other two countries since the NAFTA began in 1994. In particular, the auto industry in Mexico gained the most benefits. with one third of Mexico"s 2002 trade surplus coming from the auto industry trade with the other NAFTA countries. Through empirical analyses of employment, FDI, and the trade between US and Mexico, we could not find that there was substitute relationship between US and Mexico"s auto labor. I also found the auto trade was statistically and significantly influenced by the NAFTA, but FDI was not. The result of our analyses would shed some insightful light on Korea"s FTA policy when it prepares FTAs with other countries such as the U.S. and Japan.