Markov Chain 모형을 이용한 수도권 인구분포예측에 관한 연구

The Prediction of Changes in Population Distribution Using Markov Chain Model in Seoul Metropolitan Area

  The distribution of Population across territory plays a very important role as a leading indicator in various urban planning and its implementation. Inaccurate prediction of population distribution will bring about loss of the rationality that may rooted in a plan or an idea not only for the concerning cities but also for their adjacent metropolitan areas. On the basis of understanding the importance of the prediction, this paper reviews the characteristics of the population in Seoul Metropolitan area. The study is undertaken by analyzing migration data among Seoul Metropolitan Area"s administrative districts, which shows that the change of population movement is a primary factor dominating changes in population distribution. The analytical method employs Markov Chain Model, which is one of the popular methods for population analysis home and abroad. The period of the analysis in this study covers five years from 2001 to 2005. The target area is subdivided into Cities(shi), Counties(gun), and Wards(gu), and analyzed by its administrative subdivisions. In the analysis of this model the correlation coefficient of the predicted result is from 0.01 to 0.999, which means that this model has higher predictability.