서울 오피스 시장의 수요와 공급의 동태적 모델에 관한 연구

The Study of Office Demand-Supply Dynamics Model in Seoul Office Market

&nbsp;&nbsp;1. CONTENTS<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;(1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;This study intends to find the key factors which affects the demand and supply of the office buildings by applying system dynamics model to the office market and, with this model, this study intends to find the planning alternatives to maintain the equilibrium in the office market.<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;(2) RESEARCH METHOD<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;A) Analyzes the office demand and supply determinants by using SPSS(ver.11.0 : SPSS Inc.. 2000) for correlation analysis.<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;B) Used multiple regression model for the economical analysis of office demand and supply determinants.<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;C) Applied system dynamics model to find the causal relationship between these determinants.<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;(3) RESEARCH RESULTS<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;A) Major Determinants for Office Market: By using correlation analysis and multiple regression model, major determinants are as follows:<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;- Major Determinants for Office Demand : Total Service Worker<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;- Major Determinants for Office Supply : Interest Rate, Financial Institute Liquidity, Construction Permission Area, Land Price Index<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;B) By using system dynamics model simulation, this study draws major parameters in the office market. The major parameters are as follows : Major parameter : Interest Rete＞Land Price Index Increase Rate＞Supply Lag<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;2. RESULTS<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;By using the system dynamics office market model, this study suggest the followings to maintain stability and effective operation of office market.<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;1) Control the total office debt financing amount. The model explains how interest rate can stimulate the office supply without the increase of the demand. However. to control interest rate usually depends on the macroeconomic decisions, instead controlling the total amount of office financing is more practical<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;2) To eliminate the causes of the delay the government and market players must increase the transparency and share the exact data of office supply and demand for the precise market forecast.<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;3) The government should control the supply of commercial land and thus, control the supply of office building.