VAR모형을 이용한 주택정책 실증 연구

The Empirical Study of Housing Policy using VAR Model

&nbsp;&nbsp;1. CONTENTS<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;(1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;This study researches and focuses on how the housing polices and the macroeconomic variables of each Korean government have an effects on the house sales prices in Korean real estate market. The objectives of this study are to evaluate the housing policies of each Korean governments with in economical environments, and derive the current issues from this study.<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;(2) RESEARCH METHOD<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;For evaluating, this study first makes the index of the housing policies and then analysis results by using VAR model.<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;(3) RESEARCH RESULTS<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;First, the analysis results of correlation shows that the index number of industrial production and the total amount of currency have not an big effect on the house sales prices, and the index number of the housing policies and the housing loan keep pace with the house sales prices. The analysis results of Granger casuality shows that there is a Granger casual relationship between the house sales prices and the housing loan, and also shows that there is a two-way Granger casual relationship between AA and the house sales prices. Second, in the sixth Korean regime which accomplishing economic growth with rising the house sales prices, the research is analyzed that the housing market was accompanied well by the government housing policy&quot;s goal as showing a negative reaction to the AA&quot;s shock and a positive reaction to the housing policy&quot;s shock; on the other hand, Noh Moo-Hyun administration react negatively to the AA&quot;s shock and positively to the housing policy&quot;s shock for a while, but soon it reacts negatively to the housing policy&quot;s shock. Third, before Noh Moo-Hyun administration, the analysis results of variancy decomposition shows that the housing loan and AA have an effect on the prediction of house sales prices; however, in Noh Moo-Hyun administration, the analysis results of variancy decomposition shows that the housing policy factors have an effect on the prediction of house sales prices primarily.<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;2. RESULTS<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;The government should not make a housing plan which has a strong demand restraint and an excessive supply in order to drop in housing prices right now. The government is requested to design a comprehensive housing policy plan in a long-term, not a short-term, taking into consideration such factors like durability. consistency and stability in the coming years and years. Also, the government should not stabilize real estate market by only using the housing policy, they should consider current sociological and economical situation without the government&quot;s intervention if they could.