프로젝트 파이낸싱의 위험관리 방안으로써 전문건설기업의 부실예측에 관한 실증적 연구

An Empirical Study on the Predicting Bankruptcy of Specific Construction Firm as Risk Management Tools of Project Financing

The purpose of this study is to suggest the predicting bankruptcy of specific construction firm as risk management tools of project financing. In order to accomplish the objective, factor analysis, multivariate discriminant analysis and logistic regression analysis were conducted to obtain an objective forecasting the probability of bankruptcy using the financial data and non-financial data. Nowadays the study of predicting the bankruptcy in specific construction firm is urgently needed in order to reduce the default risk because many specific construction companies are in distress situation in Korea. Therefore this study will help to predict the bankruptcy in specific construction firm. The usefulness of this study was validated comparing with logistic regression model. Logistic regression model apears to perform well in predicting bankruptcy firm, but on the other hand, survival prediction model do well in predicting sound firm.