항만개발계획에 있어서 항만물동량 예측과 트리거룰의 적용에 관한 연구

A Study on port traffic forecasting and the application of trigger rule in port development planning

The Container throughputs were an increase of 9.8% compared with the previous year in 2006 and 5.3% in 2007, respectively. An increasing rate have continuously dropped until recently. And the rapid change of surrounding circumstances might influence the volume of cargo throughput. On the basis, the purpose of this study is to develop a representative forecasting model of port throughput and apply trigger rule in port development planning. It is helpful to use several econometric model, for example time-varying coefficients regression model and so on., when forecast port throughputs. And the complementary measure, the macroscopic method and the microscopic method, could be excellent alternative. The long-term period between founding of the master plan and revaluation causes the forecast to be inaccurate because it is too long to consider all the changes of extraneous factor in such rapidly changing circumstances. To solve this problem, several methods have been developed until recently. However, it is suggested one of some method, trigger rule. It is very important factor to introduce trigger rule, successively as follow. Firstly, a more accurate form of forecasting model and the capacity of cargo handling are needed. Secondly, some plans for controlling the interest of Special Purpose Company are needed. Third, it is needed complementary system to overcome the problem which is application of trigger rule.