옵션가격결정법을 통한 농업소득안정계정의 가치평가

This paper calculates the value of the agricultural income stabilization scheme the introduction of which is being considered by the government by applying the option pricing method. Based on a general formulation which accommodates the main policy variables of the scheme(the two different self financing ratio for the farmeres, the threshold income level between the two raios, and the required deposit), the option value is calculated by parametric and nonparametric approach. The parametric approach assumes a log-normal distribution of the income change ratio. The nonparametric approach utilizes kernel density estimation. The calculation results show that the option value is most high for the farms specialized in vegetables and fruits. The option value is most sensitive to changes in the threshold income level. The option value differs substantially between nonparametric and parametric approach, which calls for a cautious assumption concerning the distribution when a parametric approach is to be used for the calculation of the option value of this scheme.