FTA의 경제적 효과 분석을 위한 KERI-CGE 모형 개발 연구

The KERI-CGE Model for Analysis on the Economic Effects of Free Trade Agreements - Economic Effects of Korea' EU FTA -

보고서는 KERI-CGE 모형을 이용한 분석 대상으로 한·EU FTA를 선정하여 두 지역 간의 FTA 체결의 경제적 효과를 분석한 결과 한국의 GDP는 1.28~3.59% 증가하는 반면 EU의 GDP는 0.023~0.36% 증가할 것으로 예측하였다. 또한 FTA로 인한 관세철폐로 양국 간 교역도 큰 폭으로 증가할 것으로 전망하였다. 보고서는 한·EU FTA로 인해 한국은 자동차산업 생산량의 증가가 가장 크며, 의류, 전자, 기타 수송장비 순으로 생산량 증가가 큰 것으로 전망하였다. EU는 기계, 농업, 석유화학 산업의 생산량은 증가하는 반면 자동차, 전기 등의 생산량은 감소하는 등 EU의 생산 감소효과가 상대적으로 클 것으로 전망하였다. 보고서는 한·EU FTA로 한국의 고용이 11만4,500~35만 명 증가할 것으로 전망하였다. 반면 EU는 산업생산량 증가효과가 크지 않기 때문에 한·EU FTA로 인한 고용이 1,000명 정도 감소하거나 증가한다 하더라도 최대 5만 명에 그칠 것으로 전망하였다. 보고서는 서비스산업의 고용효과가 크기 때문에 일자리 창출을 위해서는 한·EU FTA에서 서비스산업의 보다 큰 폭의 개방이 요구된다고 주장하였다.

The primary objective of this study is to build a new and reliable CGE(computable general equilibrium) model for analyzing the economic effects of Free Trade Agreements(FTAs) between Korea and other nations. Trade liberalization through implementing the FTAs with major nations is very essential for Korea to maintain and raise its level of economic growth because the Korean economy is heavily dependent upon trade. FTAs with these nations are expected to bring about great economic effects. Thus, a very scientific and advanced tool is needed for the analysis on the economic effects of FTAs. Previous research on the impacts of FTAs between Korea and other nations has been done by using the GTAP(Global Trade Analysis Project) model. However, since the GTAP model assumes the exogeneity of technical progress and exclusion of factor mobility among naAbstract 187 tions, the important dynamic effects of FTAs such as growth in productivity and foreign direct investment cannot be included. The KERI-CGE model that is constructed and used for the analysis of the impact of Korea-EU FTA in this study complements the weakness of GTAP model. The KERI-CGE model is the fully dynamic computable general equilibrium model which reflects the economies of scale generated by capital accumulation and technical progress endogenously. Another advantage of the KERI-CGE model is that the model allows rational evaluation of FTAs' employment effect because labor and leisure are determined endogenously by the model's nature. In this study the economic effects of Korea-EU FTA is analyzed using this model under six scenarios that differ on the degree of openness. The macroeconomic effects of Korea-EU FTA derived in this study are as follows. Korea can be estimated to mark 1.28~3.59% increase in GDP growth rate for 2010 while estimated increase in GDP growth rate of the EU is 0.023~0.36%. Trade between Korea and the EU is also expected to increase dramatically after the implementation of Korea-EU FTA. However, due to trade-diversion effects from Korea-EU FTA, trade within the EU is projected to decrease drastically. According to the results of this study, Korea and the EU will enjoy further increase in GDP and trade if service industry is liberalized. The estimated employment effect for Korea due to the implementation of Korea-EU FTA will be impressive. Employment in Korea is estimated to increase from 114,500 up to 350,000. The results of this study imply that in the negotiation of Korea-EU FTA, Korea needs to adopt a positive attitude towards liberalization of service sector to generate greater employment effect.