청소년 범죄자에 대한 외출제한명령 효과성 연구

Analysis of the Automated Voiceprint Recognition Curfew for Juvenile Probationers in Korea

The Korean Ministry of Justice have initiated an innovative pilot project - the Automated Voiceprint Recognition Curfew (AVRC) program - as a tool of intensive supervision probation for high risk juvenile probationers in 2003. The logic of the program is straightforward; random phone calls to juveniles' homes make juvenile probationers stay home at night, and it reduces the opportunities for youth to be involved in criminal activities. This study seeks to examine the curfew programs by using official data(N=508) from two probation offices(South Seoul office and Su-Won office). The specific amis of the study include (1)examining the effectiveness of the AVRC program, (2)investigating essential predictors of recidivism rates, and (3)comparing the characteristics of program participants and the control group to determine the proper criteria for selection eligibility. Multiple aspects of outcome variables are included, such as revocation rate, number of warning tickets, and the number of rearrests during a one-year follow-up period. In addition, by using propensity scores and logistic regression(backward condition), this study examines the impact of the AVRC program on recidivism. Results suggest that the AVRS program is not statistically successful in reducing recidivism rates once risk factors are controlled in a one-year follow-up period. Instead, the AVRC program increase the opportunities for the juvenile probationers to receive warning tickets and revocation during the program period.