이라크 석유법을 통해본 자원 개발 전망과 시사점

Prospects for Petroleum Development through Analysis of Iraqi Oil Law and Discussion of Policy Implications

According to the 2008 BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Iraq is proven to have the third largest petroleum reserves of the world, next to Iran and Saudi Arabia. Moreover, its E&P costs are amongst the lowest in the Middle East. However, Iraq’s oil production has not being matched even half as much as its potential. The Iraqi Council of Ministers approved the draft of the Oil and Gas Law in February 2007 that would set guidelines for controling natural resource E&P's as well as foreign investment in Iraq. The draft law also sets a stage for a debate over how to manage the country's vast oil wealth, which Iraq desperately needs to finance the reconstruction of the country. However, Iraqi parties concerned in the law have strongly different positions on some key issues, including the appropriate role of the Federal Oil and Gas Council, the oil revenue sharing system, the proper distribution of authorities in regulating oil and gas industry between federal and regional governments, etc. Not surprisingly, the law has not been approved by the Iraq Parliament, yet. This study reviews issues and concerns surrounding the draft of the OGL. Furthermore, using the scenario analysis, it forecasts how the political milieu of the law would change in near future and discusses implications for Korea's foreign policy goals in Iraq. In result, this study suggests Korea should focus on building images that Korea is willing to actively support successful reconstruction of Iraq. The current disorders in Iraqi situations can give an opportunity for Korea to obtain stronger trust from the people in Iraq.