공적분검정을 이용한 우리나라의 반덤핑규제 결정요인 분석

A Study on the Determinants of the Korea's Regulations of Antidumping Using Cointegration Verification

Although antidumping duties were allowed under the GATT, they were seldom imposed until the early 1970s. Beginning from the mid-1970s, antidumping duties have been actively imposed. The investigation, as well as the imposition, of antidumping duties may act as strong protectionist measures. Although antidumping duties were almost entirely used by the developed countries up until the mid-1980s, a few developing countries have begun to impose antidumping duties since the late 1980s. Many others have followed this trend since the late 1990s. Korea is one of the few developing countries, which started investigations of antidumping duties in the late 1980s and has used those measures actively since then. Against this backdrop, this study analyzes the macroeconomic factors that explain antidumping decisions in the Korea. To this, cointegration verification was conducted based on the use of Johansen verification method to define the existence (or non-existence) of long-term balance relationship among variables. Johansen's cointegration test results show that there is a long run equilibrium relationship between antidumping tariffs and unemployment rate and GDP growth rate. The result of analysis indicates that the unemployment rate and the GDP growth rate affected the Korea's antidumping investigation decisions.