토지가격 예측모형에 관한 연구

A Study on the Forecasting Model of Land Price

1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study is to analysis flowing of the market fundamental values and to construct forecasting model of the land price using the Vector Auto-Regressive model in Korea land market. (2) RESEARCH METHOD This study was focused on empirical test. The variable used in analysis is the land price. I selected such macro variable as corporate bond yield rate, real GDP, and etc., as endogenous variables in VAR model. I implemented ADF unit-root test, Granger causality test, the impulse response analysis and the variance decomposition analysis. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS VAR model was shown significant results. Land price has been highly influenced by their own changes to compare with the macro variables after the IMF crisis. 2. RESULTS This study offers that the direct of land policy to be consistent In order to stable of land price.