위안화의 국제적 수요 추정

AnEstimationofInternationalDemandforChineseYuan

위안화 국제화에 있어 중요한 의의를 가지는 위안화의 국제적 수요 추정을 위하여 1976-2008년 기간에대하여 각 화폐의 세계 외환보유고에서 차지하는 비중으로 정의 되는 국제적 화폐수요 함수를 추정하고그 함수를 적용하여 위안화에 대한 국제화폐수요를 추정하였다

The paper has tried to estimate the international demand for Chinese Yuan as one of the world foreign exchange reserve component currencies. Using 1976-2008 data we have estimated a general function of international demand for money, based on the theoretical consideration of the basic determinants of that demand. This general international money demand function has been used to estimate a possible in international demand for Chinese Yuan in terms of its weight in world foreign exchange reserve currency components. The results of our estimation show that the size of GDP, the variability of exchange rate and the total size of stock market are most important determinants of the international demand for a money. Chinese Yuan’s importance as a foreign exchange component currency seems to be very small presently, but it may grow to be a meaningful level in the future, considering the important determinants of international money demand.