부동산 담보부 부실채권의 낙찰가격과 경제지표와의 상관관계 분석에 관한 연구

Indicator Development for the Price Forecasting of Asset Backed Non-performing Loans

1. CONTENTS OBJECTIVES With the global financial risk that began in American in 2007, the real economy activity slowed down so rapidly that insolvent obligation increased, but the study on price evaluation of insolvent obligation and future price expectation is so limited. Therefore, this study aims to define the bid value rate of mortgage-backed insolvent obligation and find out its influential economic and real-estate indicators to serve as a usable indicator for future price expectation and the sale. (2) RESEARCH METHOD This study looked into factors influencing the processing of mortgage-backed insolvent obligation and the price evaluation, and verified the relations between 43 indicators among real-estate and economic indicators and the bid value rate. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS Each indicators showed low relations in case of the analysis with the same time series, but higher relations in case of the analysis with moving time series by the year. 2. RESULTS As the results of the analysis, all variables preceded a year and particularly private consumption trend, housing sales trend, housing rent trend, sales trust variations in the amount, sales trust variations in the rate, and BSI for small businesses had a positive(+) effect while producer price index(PPI) and export price index had a negative(-) effect.