도시개발수요에 대응한 수도권성장모형구축

A Study on Development of Capital Region Growth Model for Managing Development Demands : A Conceptual Model

This study suggests a conceptual model to forecast urban growth and studies how the Seoul metropolitan area will be changed or transformed under given scenarios using the model. The conceptual model consists of 3 modules; socio-economic forecasting module, spatial urban growth forecasting module and index allocating module. First, socio-economic index forecasting module estimates population, housing and employment. Secondly, spatial urban growth forecasting module simulates urban growth using markovian-cellular automata model. Third, index allocating module distribute the population, housing and employment spatially. In the end the map which accommodates the demand and supply side of urban development was made. This study is significant in that it forecasted indexes through multi-dimensional approaches and applied the indexes onto the Cellular Automata, and thus suggested a method to apply urban growth forecasting model on Seoul Metropolitan Area.