공간계량모형(Spatial Econometrics Model)을 활용한 도시범죄 발생영향요인에 관한 연구

A Study for Factors Based on Urban Crime Using Spatial Econometrics Model

The present study aims to suggest ways to utilize Spatial econometrics model for preventing urban crimes. In this study, we analyzed urban crime determinants and factors based on crime We reviewed a variety of precedent studies and found urban planning, environmental planning and spatial planning are in needs of crime prevention efforts. According to crime theories, it is important to protect potential victims from criminals for fundamental crime prevention. And urban crimes highly tend to correspond with spatial expansion of cities. This underlines the necessity of crime preventive efforts in urban planning spaces. Through urban crime determinant analysis using total number of five types of felonies occurred in 2005 in Seoul city as dependent variable and socio-demographic factors, socio-economic factors and urban planning factors as 13 types of independent variables. We used SAR, SEM which are considering spatial correlation and heterogeneity as well, and OLS, a traditional regression model together. According to the results, the level of significance of the spatial econometrics models are higher than that of OLS, which demonstrates that the econometrics models are more appropriate tools than OLS to consider spatial relation of variables. The crime determinants are turned different depending on the type of crime. According to the analysis, the population, land use, land-use mix, portion of park are in proportion with crime occurrence. This analysis demonstrates physical features and conditions of a city has many things to do with crime and thus make contribution to crime occurrence.