중국의 大國崛起와 남중국해 諸島 영유권문제

The Rise of China and Issues of the Islands in the South China Sea

It is between the late 1990s and the early 2000s that China and the rest of the world began to agree that the rise of China means the rise of a great power. Chinese themselves claim that the rise of China is identical to the rise of great powers in the history. Throughout the Chinese history, China has been pressing its own version of international order with both military and non-military means, expanding its national territory. A rising China in the 21st century never hesitates to expand its influence. As power shift is not obvious in East Asia as well as in the rest of the world, China maintains its cooperative posture, but, the way ahead is unpredictable and many cannot help worrying about the negative dimension to the rise of China. Analysis of the relationship between the rise of China and the Chinese claim to the islands in the South China Sea shows that the greater China has become, the more aggressive it has turned in its territorial claims. In other words, China changes its posture on territorial issues in proportion to changes in its national might. Issue of the islands in the South China Sea finds its presence in the maritime border strategy of China, which President Hu Jintao has mentioned. Announcing that China is transforming itself into a sea power from a continental power, he emphasized the need to build military might commensurate with its presence as a political and economic power. In addition, he underscores that other countries are occupying some of Chinese islands and sunken rocks illegally and claims that China is the only nation that has continental shelf. China argues that the issues of the islands in the South China Sea came about, as the neighboring countries occupied the islands on after another in the midst of commotion that engulfed China during the Cultural Revolution. China built military bases in the Paracel Islands and the Spratly Islands that it claims as territory and included them in its administrative jurisdiction. China also built a large nuclear submarine base in Hainan Island at the mouth of the South China Sea, which indicates the aggressive posture of China. Concerning the race of China and the U.S. to secure regional hegemony over the islands in South China Sea, Chinese scholars conclude that the U.S., a 3rd party to the territorial issue in the South China Sea, is trying to intervene and lay siege to China. The sea power strategy of China and the Asia-Pacific strategy of the U.S. are colliding head on in the South China Sea. China analyzes that if it clashes with one of the U.S. allies in the South China Sea militarily, the U.S. will intervene, which will pose a serious threat to the Chinese claims to its territories and interests in the sea. They predict with confidence that the U.S. will not be able to win a full-blown war with China.