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An Empirical Examination of Rice Imports Based on the Import Demand Model: The Case of Major Rice Importing Countries Using Welfare Effects

Since November 2007, international rice prices have been soaring with respect to the imposition of export restrains by a growing number of countries. In this situation, this paper investigates the welfare effects on the major rice importing countries(Indonesia, Philippines, Nigeria, and Saudi Arabia) under the change of international rice prices. In order to obtain the income/price elasticities on the major rice importing countries, this paper utilized the import demand model including a dependent variable of rice import volumes and explanatory variables of income and rice prices. Furthermore, using the estimated income/price elasticities, social welfare effects have been obtained using consumer surplus for the top four rice importing countries. Empirical results suggest that economic growth and importing countries’ population positively affect national income, thus, positively affecting rice consumption. The income/price elasticities of rice imports are shown to be inelastic. And this paper estimates the social effects arising from increased rice export prices and estimated how consumer surplus is affected in major rice importing countries.