한국에 있어서 리카도 중립성 가설의 실증적 검증

Some Empirical Tests on the Ricardian Neutrality Hypothesis in Korea

This study investigates the Ricardian Neutrality Hypothesis(RNH), revived by Barro(1974), from theoretical and empirical perspectives. The purpose of this paper is as follows. First, to examine the theoretical underpinnings underlying the RNH and variour sources for deviations from neutralities. Second, to review four types of previous empirical studies on the RNH in Korea and other countries. Third, to empirically test the validity of the RNH by analysing the effects of Korean government variables on the Korean consumption expenditure, interest rate, exchange rate, and the current account simultaneonsly. This study differs from previous studies by estimating the effects of government variables within the context of a small empirical open macro model of the Korean economy. To this end, I have to use a standard (unrestricted or unconstrained) 7 variable VAR model with no cointegrations. Specifically, the empirical analysis is also performed by evaluating impulse response function, variance decomposition and F test in a VAR model. In the empirical study of the Korean quarterly data(1975: 1-1992-4), on balance, there is some support for the RNH, In this case, our provisional undings do not appear consistent with the conventional view that government bonds are net wealth. But to gain nobustness of the different facets of the RNH in Korea, much more empirical work remains to be done on this crucial monetary and fiscal policy issue.