地方稅 推計額의 誤差分析

On the Accuracy of Local Tax Forecasts in Korea

The purpose of this study is to analyze how much estimated amount and settled amount of local taxes differ in Korea. Cities and counties have been analyzed using the annual data set from the period of 1996 to 1998. In the case of both cities and counties, several similarities were as follows: First, an underforecasting phenomenon prevailed. Second, relatively many local governments underforecasted both automobile tax and revenue from previous fiscal year, but accurately forecasted property tax and tobacco consumption tax. Third, the degree of forecasting accuracy in terms of MAPE is the lowest in revenue from previous fiscal year. Fourth, the number of local tax items accurately forecasted declined and the values of both MPE and MAPE increased in 1998 compared with those in 1997. Fifth, the Rodgers and Joyce hypothesis that forecasting is more accurate during recessions than during economic expansion was rejected. The differences between cities and counties were as follows: First, under-forecasting phenomenon was more severe in counties than in cities. Second, the overall degree of forecasting accuracy was lower in counties than in cities in terms of both MPE and MAPE. Third, the property tax was the most accurate in cities, whereas both tobacco consumption tax and synthesis land tax were the most accurate ones in counties in terms of MAPE.