주택가겨과 주택담보대출 연체율의 동태균형 분석

An Analysis of the Dynamic Equilibrium between the Housing Price and the Housing Mortgage Delinquency Rate

1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES This very research analyzes the dynamic equilibrium relation between the housing price along with financial variables and the housing mortgage delinquency rate on the grounds of a possibility of deleveraging and financial accelerator during the process of interest rate normalization. (2) RESEARCH METHOD The Error Correction Model is applied in this research that can simultaneously analyze the both the long term and short term dynamic equilibrium relations between the housing price and the housing mortgage delinquency rate. In addition, constraint formula is used to measure the effect of each variable to further suggest a way to achieve a stable equilibrium point for the housing market and housing mortgage market. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS First of all, according to the result of estimation for a long-run equilibrium, a percentage increase in the lending rate caused the delinquency rate to increase by 0.41%. 1n addition, a percentage increase in the inflation-adjusted mortgage size and the housing price estimated to cause the delinquency rate to increase by 3.41% and 1.62% respectively. For the case of a percentage increase in the debt to disposable income ratio, it caused the delinquency rate to increase by 0.19%. Second of all, the coefficient of error correction term was estimated at -0.91. Third of all, the effect of a decrease in the housing price was greater in magnitude than the effect of an increase in lending rate. In other words, the effect of a decrease in housing price on the household consumption and expenses was higher. 2. RESULTS First of all, if the loan size exceeds a certain level, it may affect the delinquency rate to increase. Second of all, in order to prevent the financial accelerator due from the credit crisis, the supervisory policies must be reinforced so that the Debt to Income standards can be flexibly adjusted according to the housing market and the profit standards must be included in the eligibility screening process for mortgage loan when financial institutions carry out their evaluations. Third of all, while operating the macro-economic policies, it must be noted that the utilization of housing prices as an important information variable can be considered as a way to pursue stabiliazation of not only the housing market but also the macro-economics.