아파트 전세가격/매매가격 비율의 장ㆍ단기 분석

The Long-Run and Short-Run Relationship between House Prices and Rents : With Special Reference to Seoul and Other Metropolitan Areas

1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study is to examine the long-run and short-run relationships between house rent-price ratio and the variables such as interest rate and exrected future price growth. (2) RESEARCH METHOD This study employes a bounds testing approach to cointegration. In addition, an ARDL(autoregressive distributed lag) - ECM (error correction model) is used to estimate the short-run relations among the variables. (3) RESEARCH RESULTS The empirical results show that there exist long-run cointegration relationships between house rent-price ratios and other variables. Our empirical results are in favor of the present value model in the long run. Moreover, the error correction terms are negative and statistically significant, implying that there exist the short-run adjustments in the house prices and rents toward their long-run equilibrium levels. 2. RESULTS The current value of rent-price ratios affects the future movements of both house prices and rents in two regions. Our results give some policy implication for the housing market. The policy to stabilize the housing markets should be made by considering the factors such as the characteristics of regional housing markets and its short-run and long-run impacts on the housing market.