외환위기 전후의 우리나라 수입수요의 구조변확와 장기적 안정성

Structural Change and Long Term Stability of Korea’s Import Demand Before and After the Financial Crisis

This paper analyzed empirically whether there happened a structural change of import demand behavior and import demand was stable before and after the financial crisis. However, there was no clear evidence on the result of structural changes analyzed by CHOW and CUSUM test, we could find capabilities that instability of import demand, happened 4 years before the crisis, could be one of the factors might bring about financial crisis. To confirm whether there is a long term stability between volume of import and tested variables, we tested co-integration test with the data. In the result of the test, we found that there are long term stabilities in between the import volume and tested variables such as real GDP, domestic price, and exchange rates. Therefore, the structure of import demand, in spite of financial crisis, have not been changed and is still secured. And the result shows that there is long term stabilities with the tested variables.