세계관광수요의 예측과 탄력성의 추정

Prediction of Demand for Tourism and Estimation of Elasticity in the World Tourism Market

The world tourism market is a subset of the world market. The tourism demand market is consisted of outbound tourists from a number of countries around the world. The main objective of this study is to improve international balance of payments and increase national income with inbound tourism consumption expenditure. It is necessary to analyze demand for outbound tourism and estimate expenditure elasticity of tourism demand systematically in approaching the world tourism market effectively. For the purpose several regression analyses were examined, using two models, that is linear model and log-linear model. The former was used in forcasting demand, the latter in estimating elasticity for tourism demand. The variables included in the models were chosen by a backward selection. The evaluation of regression analyses was emphasized on coincidence of practical theory, significance of parameters under confidence level of 95%, and high coefficient of determination as possible. In predicting demand and calculating elasticity series data and cross section data were used. In the process of regression analysis outbound expenditure was applied to dependent variable, and GDP or total amount of export to independent variables. Three regression equations were presented to predict tourism demand in the future, and two equations to estimate elasticities in the long run and in the short run. As a result of regression analysis, policies for development of tourism in the long run in Korea were presented; orientaion of basic policy for tourism, microscopic and macroscopic policies.