Developing a Path Model of International Tourism Demand

The objective of this study was to develop an empirical path model for the international tourism demand. Through series regression analyses of time series data for 18 years, the determinants of tourism demand in a case of tourists’ flow from Canada to the USA were investigated. Six determinants (TPI, exchange rate, population, GDP, percentage of imports, and percentage of exports) and four demand measures (arrivals, receipts from Canada as intervening variables, total arrivals, and receipts from USA as dependent variables were employed to examine four different regression equations of the hypothesized model. The results indicated that the explained variances (R-square) of each model range from 99, 97, 90, and 92 (%) respectively (p ＜ .001). TPI, exports, imports and exchange rate are identified as major determinants that have been generating tourism demand from Canada to the USA. Additionally, the results showed that arrivals and receipts from Canada have been affecting the total number of arrivals and receipts in the USA, meaning that Canada is one of the significant markets for the USA international tourism demand. Finally, this study suggested that the results of this study may help to efficiently develop and promote tourism policy and marketing programs for international tourism demand.