중국 주택가격 지수간의 상호관계 실증연구

A Study on the Evaluation of Real Estate Index in China - Focusing on Comparison before and after 2008 Global Financial Crisis

1, CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES This article tried to examine into relations and mutual effects between China's representative housing price indices such as housing sales price index, commodity and building price index, commodity housing sales price index. (2) RESEARCH METHOD This study, which performed verification of Granger causality setting the period before the occurrence of financial crisis as observation period, and analysis to response and descriptive ability about correlation and mutual impact between three housing price indices through the impulse response analysis and variance decompositions in time series analysis. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS The study findings showed that housing sales price index of China's representative three housing price indices has a larger description ability and impact than other two housing price indices to unexpected changes, and if housing sales prices are impacted, which in turn, brings a great response to other two housing price indices, but they do not general a response to themselves. 2. RESULTS The study confirmed if there are any change in relations between housing price indices when values after financial crisis are integrated. If values after 2008 global financial crisis are included, it shows generally similar trends to the experimental results before the crisis, so the financial crisis will be evaluated as have not given a notable change on relations and mutual effects between housing sales price index, commodity and building price index, commodity housing sales price index.