주택가격변동과 주택담보대출 연체율의 동태적 분석

A Dynamic Analysis of Housing Price Change and Household Mortgage Arrears Rate

The purpose of this study is to find the macroeconomic variables that must be preemptively managed for stable control of housing price and delinquency rate of housing mortgage. The analysis results are as follows. First, housing price is affected greatly by number of housing transactions, consumer price index, and delinquency rate of housing mortgage. Second, delinquency rate of housing mortgage is affected greatly by number of housing transactions, consumer price index, and housing price. Third, compared to other variables, housing price and delinquency rate are mutually significant and are relatively affected greatly. Such research results imply that if the number of housing transactions decline to control housing price, the increase in delinquency rate of housing mortgage induces a vicious cycle of the housing market. Therefore, in order for stable management of housing price or delinquency rate of housing mortgage, monitoring must be strengthened to prevent excess inflow of mortgage loans into the housing market while preemptive stabilization of inflation is required. In other words, housing price and delinquency rate of housing mortgage are not matters that can be resolved afterwards but rather it must be prevented preemptively so when executing the macroeconomic policy, the first goal should be to stabilize inflation but utilizing housing price as important information variable will not only stabilize the housing market but also become a method to pursue stabilization of the macroeconomic factors.