레바논의 내적 갈등 요인에 관한 연구

A Study on the Internal Conflict Factors of Lebanon

This paper analyzes Lebanon’s internal conflict factors by applying the needs theory developed by Edward Azar. Lebanon has suffered from protracted internal conflicts for a long period of time because it is home to diverse religious groups, which are all more interested in their factional interests rather than national interests. These conflicts originated from the power-sharing system that was established by the leaders of the Maronites and the Sunnis, introduced at the time of independence in 1943. These internal religious conflicts worsened during the period of the civil war between 1975 and 1990. The Taif negotiations in 1989 provided an excellent opportunity to abolish the factional power-sharing system, but Lebanese political and religious leaders decided to keep the old system intact. As a result, even though more than 20 years have passed since the end of the civil war, religious factional fighting persists in modern-day Lebanon. Meanwhile, many ordinary Lebanese citizens are suffering from the lack of basic human needs, including the lack of political participation, security, justice, education, and identity. These citizens are unable to change the system because of the predatory political and religious elite. In order to survive under these conditions, a majority of Lebanese people have become even more loyal to their religious leaders. The daily lives of many Lebanese are confined to interacting solely with members of their own community, fostering segregation. Therefore, Lebanese society is divided both horizontally and vertically. According to a recent survey by the present author at the American University of Beirut in 2010, a majority of respondents believe that the best way to solve the Lebanese internal conflicts is to promote negotiations among factional leaders. The religious and factional leaders are, however, adamant about maintaining the status quo. If these leaders remain unyielding, it is inevitable that Lebanon will suffer from internal conflicts for a long period of time. The possibility of another civil war emerging exists in the worst case scenario.