반체제의 정치경제학

Political Economy of Opposition - Defection of Businessmen in Uzbekistan -

This article analyses the thesis that the conflict between an authoritarian regime and businessmen under that regime can be associated with the degree of advancement of market reform and privatization. For this purpose, examples of Central Asian states, Uzbekistan in particular, are considered. In spite of sharing similar political and institutional features, the Central Asian states exhibit different patterns of market reform. In Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, where the economy has been largely privatized, defections of the businessmen from the president’s rule happen not infrequently. These businessmen tend to expect that injecting money and other resources into the opposition will lead to mass mobilization. On the other hand, in Turkmenistan, where the economy is completely centralized and business remains under severe state control, a case of defection of a businessman to opposition has not been reported. Uzbekistan, with its very modest market reform agenda, serves as a critical case in support of the link between privatization and defection. In spite of government repression, a handful of Uzbek businessmen have tried to organize antigovernment groups and have rebelled against the Karimov regime. This suggests that even a low level of privatization could encourage capitalists to engage in dissident politics, although such defections may be few and far between.