한국의 대중 수출경쟁력 행태분석

Export Competitiveness against China: Panel Cointegrating Vectors and Decomposition of CAC

The exports to China accounted for a quarter of the Korean exports in 2012. There are, however, behavioral differences among the main export items. This paper, hence, employs the Comparative Advantages by Countries(CACs) and estimates the integrating vectors to reveal the behaviors of the seven main export items, which are the household electronic appliances, industrial devices, electronic components, wire and wireless communication devices, semiconductors, and computers. The study finds that the coefficients of CAC on the exports of 7 items are not only significant but positive in both the fixed-effect and random-effect model. The panel cointegrating vectors exhibit somewhat difference according to the items. The export elasticity of CAC is higher than unity in the wire and wireless communication devices, semiconductors, and industrial devices, while the household electronic appliances, electronic components, and computers have elasticity lower than unity. Furthermore, rolling panel regression shows that the coefficients tend to fall and the influences of CAC on the export performance are on the decrease. The decomposition of CAC shows that a higher CAC may not always indicate a higher export competitiveness and resulting lager export performance of the concerned items.