주택시장의 내생변수가 아파트 전세가격비율에 미치는 영향분석

An Impact on the Jeon-se Price Ratio of Endogenous Variable in the Housing Market

The objective of this study is to present indications of how to stabilize the apartment jeon-se market by identifying factors that affect the 'jeon-se price rate' by establishing an apartment jeon-se price decision model employing the Vector Error Correction Model(VECM). According to the Impulse Response Analysis, the rise in sales prices and the rise in housing supply are found to be factors that lower the 'jeon-se price rate' and raise the housing supply rate, while the number of households is a variable that has little to do with the changing of the 'jeon-se price rate'. Also, the Variance Decomposition Analysis of predicted errors shows that the biggest variable responsible for the change of 'jeon-se price rate' is its own factors followed by the housing supply performance, the sales price index, and the housing supply rate in consecutive order. The analysis leads to the conclusion that expanding housing supply is the key to the changes such as curbing the hike of jeon-se price and stabilizing the jeon-se market. Since the major consumer of jeo-se market is low-income household and the homeless middle class, it seems to necessary to expand the supply of inexpensive public housing or tenement housing such as Bogeumjari Housing. Besides, as the d개p in housing price is a major factor affecting the rise of the 'jeon-se price rate', positive considerations should be given to various measures such as lowering acquisition tax and redusing transfer tax, in order to boost the housing market which has long been in a slump.