기간제 근로자의 정규직 전환에 영향을 미치는 요인

Transition out of Fixed-term Contracts: An Exploratory Study

본 연구는 한국노동연구원의 2005년~2009년의 사업체패널 자료를 사용하여 기간제 근로자의 정규직 전환에 영향을 미치는 요인을 분석하였다. 분석 결과 정규직 고용보호의 지표인 노동조합은 정규직 전환 확률이나 전환비율을 낮추는 효과가 나타났지만, 정규직 고용보장 여부는 기간제 근로자의 정규직 전환에 영향을 미치지 않았다. 정규직 근로자의 기능적 유연성은 2007년~2009년 표본에서 정규직 전환 확률과 전환비율을 높이는 것으로 나타났다. 대체적 수량적 유연성으로서 기간제 이외의 비정규직 비중은 2005년~2007년 표본에서는 정규직 전환비율을 높이는 것으로 나타났고, 기간제 근로자 비중은 2007년~2009년 표본에서 정규직 전환 확률과 정규직 전환 비율을 높이는 것으로 나타났다. 보상경직성의 지표인 호봉제는 2007년~2009년 표본에서 정규직 전환 확률과 정규직 전환 비율을 모두 낮추는 것으로 나타났다. 마지막으로 기간제 보호법 시행 이전인 2005년~2007년 표본과 법률 시행 이후인 2007년~2009년 표본간에 정규직 전환 확률이나 전환비율에 통계적으로 유의한 차이가 나타나지 않았다. 이상의 분석결과가 갖는 함의와 추후 연구과제를 제시하였다.

Using the 2005, 2007, and 2009 waves of the Workplace Panel Survey(WPS) data by Korea Labor Institute, this study investigates the transition from fixed-term contract work into permanent employment. Fixed-term contracts are a representative form of nonstandard work in Korea. The share of fixed-term contracts among all wage-earning employees in Korea stands at roughly 15% as of 2013. As in other countries, Korean researchers have extensively debated the advantages and disadvantages of fixed-term contracts, and previous studies tell us that both the "bridge" and "trap" effects of fixed-term contracts co-exist in Korea. Previous studies regarding transition from fixed-term contracts have to date been conducted mostly by economists and sociologists, and their analysis has focused primary on the individual rather than the firm. So much more research is needed at firm level to determine which firms allow transition from fixed-term contracts to permanent jobs, and which firms do not. This paper explores the antecedents of transition from fixed-term contracts to permanent employment. Based on a review of previous studies, this paper explores five research hypotheses. H 1: Employment protection level of regular work is negatively associated with the transition from fixed-term contracts to regular employment. H 2: Functional flexibility of regular work is positively associated with the transition from fixed-term contracts to regular employment. H 3-1: The intensity of nonstandard work, except for fixed-term contracts, is positively with the transition from fixed-term contracts to regular employment. H 3-2: The intensity of fixed-term contracts is positively with the transition from fixed-term contracts to regular employment. H 4: Seniority pay of regular work is negatively associated with the transition from fixed-term contracts to regular employment. H 5: Non-regular worker related laws in Korea enacted in July 2007 are positively associated with the transition from fixed-term contracts to regular employment. This paper divided the 2005~2009 waves of the WPS into two sub-samples, that is a 2005~2007 sample and a 2007~2009 sample to coincide with the WPS's convention of measuring the incidence and intensity of transition over two years. Dependent variables are the incidence and intensity of transition from fixed-term contracts. Except for testing H5, this paper used two sub-samples for its model estimation. For H5, this paper pooled the two sub-sample data sets and estimated the effect of new Korean laws by using a year dummy. We used logistic regression to estimate the incidence and tobit regression to estimate the intensity of transition out of fixed-term contracts. The findings are as follows.; Existence of a trade union (H1), an indicator of the employment protection level of regular work, was negatively associated with the incidence of transition from fixed-term contracts in the 2005~2007 sample. But provision of employment security (H1), another indicator of employment protection level of regular work, was not related with transition from fixed-term contracts. Functional flexibility of regular work (H2) was positively related with both the incidence and intensity of transition from fixed-term contracts in the 2007~2009 sample. The intensity of nonstandard work, except fixed-term contracts (H3-1), was positively related with both the incidence and intensity of transition from fixed-term contracts in the 2005~2007 sample, and the intensity of fixed-term contracts (H3-2) was positively related with both the incidence and intensity of transition from fixed-term contracts in the 2007~2009 sample. Seniority pay (H4) was negatively related with both the incidence and intensity of transition from fixed-term contracts in the 2007~2009 sample. Enactment of nonregular worker related laws in Korea (H5) were not related with transition from fixed-term contracts.